SGB Chapter 353

## Chapter 353: Talleyrand’s Diplomatic Perspective

“Although I’m not personally acquainted with Prince Chertoryzky, his views on the two Tsars are discernible in his article published in The Economist,” said Arthur, recalling the Prince’s manuscript. “As a young Tsar raised in the Russian court, Alexander I was eager to reform but remained indecisive. He wasn’t driven by the impulsive passions and unpredictable nature of his unfortunate father, Paul I. Instead, he was deeply influenced by the Swiss democrat, La Harpe, and yearned for the lofty ideals of the French Revolution of 1789.”

“However, as the son of Paul I, he couldn’t escape the traditional instincts of his ancestors, who sought to expand their territory. His bright blue eyes, his handsome and imposing physique, his high forehead, his tightly closed lips, all these gave him an air of energetic authority.”

“His robust physique and penchant for displays of power seemed to propel him to complete Catherine II’s unfinished conquest of Turkey and wash away the lingering remorse for his unwitting involvement in his father’s assassination.”

Talleyrand nodded slightly, “That’s a fair assessment. Compared to Nicholas I, Alexander I, besides his endearing naivety, understood the respect for Europe’s natural order and existing principles.”

“You’ve been mentioning this since the beginning,” Arthur inquired, “So what exactly are these ‘Europe’s natural order and existing principles’?”

Talleyrand explained patiently, “The so-called ‘Europe’s natural order and existing principles’ mean that each nation’s influence should be limited to its strategic boundaries. The first to realize this was Cardinal Richelieu, who led France to greatness.”

“On his deathbed, he warned Louis XIII: ‘Never invade Holland. It would only strengthen the uncontrollable English and be the greatest folly.’ For France at that time, maintaining its position relied on two key points.”

“First: Don’t weaken Holland too much. Let these seafaring merchants become a counterweight to England. As long as Holland exists, France’s land dominance can be secure.”

“Second: Maintain the fragmented state of the German region in Central Europe and the Italian city-states in the south. As long as their unification is thwarted, France’s dominance in Europe will be unshakable.”

“Unfortunately, Richelieu’s strategy for France was shattered by the shortsightedness of Louis XIV. He allied with England to crush the Dutch, breaking through France’s strategic boundaries. Looking at it from a short-term perspective, France conquered Holland, seemingly expanding our national power. But in reality, we lost far more than we gained. The British, freed from the Dutch restraint, soared to new heights, and France lost its dominance over the European seas. So, from then on, France could only hope for land dominance in Europe.”

Arthur merely stirred his soup with his spoon, “I’m not a diplomat, so I can’t fully grasp your point. But from a history student’s perspective, your view is certainly interesting. However, you’re revealing these private secrets to me. Aren’t you worried that I might turn around and relay this to our Foreign Office? Or perhaps you hope I will?”

Talleyrand raised an eyebrow and smirked, “Arthur, on the one hand, you underestimate yourself. In my eyes, you’re not just a history student. I’m telling you all this not just to tell stories, and I believe you can understand it deeply.”

“But on the other hand, you overestimate yourself. I don’t think taking this to the Foreign Office will have any effect on your Foreign Minister, Viscount Palmerston. His animosity towards France is deep-rooted, and at the same time, he’s wary of Austria’s expanding influence in Central and Southern Europe.”

“What puzzles me is that he seems utterly unconcerned about the Russians’ relentless westward advance and their attempt to control Eastern Europe and Western Asia. If he’s worried that supporting Poland would create a pro-French regime there, he could discuss this issue with me directly.”

“Why can’t we all sit down and talk about Poland calmly, since Belgium could be negotiated? He still doesn’t understand the concept of strategic limits. A powerful Russia is far more frightening than a powerful France.”

“He’s too focused on tactical limitations to see the strategic thinking of competition and cooperation. You should know that the center of the world always lies on this continental island formed by Europe and Asia. This is determined by numerous factors, including population, economy, and historical culture.”

“And France’s strategic limits determine that when France is strong, the limit of our control can only extend to the Iberian Peninsula, the Apennine Peninsula, and the German plains. If it’s beyond that, even if France can control it in the short term, this fragile control is easily broken by external forces.”

“But Russia is different. Its geographical location determines that it’s the only country in the world that has the opportunity to establish continental dominance in both Europe and Asia.”

Arthur looked at Talleyrand with a mix of emotions after hearing these words.

When Prince Chertoryzky suggested in The Economist that a unified Prussia would threaten the European order and that Poland’s independence had to be maintained to counter it, Arthur was already surprised by the accuracy of this prediction.

Now, Talleyrand was peddling the “Russian threat theory” in front of him, making Arthur have to give a thumbs-up to the extraordinary foresight of these diplomatic figures.

However, before agreeing with Talleyrand, he still wanted to hear the old cripple’s specific analysis.

“Why do you say that?” Arthur asked.

Talleyrand casually assessed, “Naturally, I have my reasons. Although I have no grudge against Russia, I even had a good relationship with their former Tsar, Alexander I, my personal feelings can’t override the facts.”

“In my opinion, Russia’s geographical position and traditional values determine that once Russia becomes powerful, it will be the most unstable factor in the entire Eurasian continent, and even the whole world.”

“Because of its vast territory, and even more so because of its high latitude, it becomes the only country in the world that can threaten Northern Europe through its military presence on the Kola Peninsula, threaten the German states of Central Europe through the Baltic Sea, launch attacks on the Ottoman Empire’s Dardanelles and Bosphorus Straits across the Caspian Sea, and cross the Caucasus Mountains to attack the Persian Empire in Western Asia.”

“If its power is strong enough, then even the Central Asian region at the foot of the Altai Mountains and the Far East below Siberia will be under its control. Worse, it controls Alaska through the Bering Strait. If it can develop that place, then Britain’s presence in North America will also be threatened.”

Arthur chuckled, “I understand your concern, but in my opinion, Viscount Palmerston is clearly more concerned about the other side of the English Channel than Alaska in the Bering Strait.”

***

Talleyrand nodded, “That’s the problem. He’s overly wary of France, forgetting that we can actually cooperate. After Holland was crushed, France completely lost the possibility of independently dominating Europe. And the destruction of the French Revolution and subsequent Napoleonic Wars made our land dominance in Europe precarious.”

“For Britain, you don’t seek to rule the land of Europe. You’re clearly more concerned with protecting your trade routes than fighting hand-to-hand with continental powers. So, you’ll eventually need to find a reliable partner in Europe to cooperate with to ensure that your influence in Europe doesn’t continue to decline. But frankly, the risks of cooperating with the Russians are far greater than cooperating with France. Especially with the current Tsar of Russia, Nicholas I.”

“You’ve been mentioning the noble Emperor of the St. Petersburg court since the beginning,” Arthur asked, “Where does your anxiety come from?”

Talleyrand wiped his hands with a napkin, “Arthur, you’re a Scotland Yard officer, so you don’t know much about the European power players, but people like me need to know the guys who can influence the policies of different countries. So, I believe your Foreign Minister, Viscount Palmerston, is the same.”

“Compared to his brother, Alexander I, Nicholas I has a clearer purpose, a more tenacious will, and a tougher, more iron-fisted approach. In other words, he’s more Tsar than Alexander I. Unfortunately, the Decembrist uprising broke out at the beginning of his reign. So, his personality has developed a hint of sensitivity and suspicion.”

“Both striving to uphold absolute monarchy, Metternich of Austria is far easier to deal with than this Tsar. If Britain doesn’t intend to intervene in the Polish issue, fine, I accept that. But I want to share a piece of news I just received, which will also help to support my point.”

“Would it be embarrassing for you to leak this information?” Arthur asked with a smile.

Talleyrand sipped his wine, “No, even if I don’t say it, you’ll find out in a couple of days.”

Arthur blinked, hinting, “Then I’ll trouble you. Your information might be helpful for my subsequent discussion with the Cabinet about the assassination.”

“That’s best.”

Talleyrand began, “I just received news yesterday that Muhammad Ali, the Pasha of Egypt in the Ottoman Empire, is dissatisfied with the Ottoman Sultan’s failure to keep his promise to appoint him as Governor of Syria and Crete. So, he’s raised the banner of jihad to rebuild the Arab Empire and sent his son Ibrahim leading 30,000 Egyptian troops to invade the Sinai Peninsula, aiming directly for Palestine and Syria.”

“Now, the Egyptian troops have successively captured El Arish and Gaza, and are currently besieging Jaffa. The Lebanese and Syrian chieftains have welcomed the arrival of the Egyptian troops. They seem eager to break away from the Ottoman Empire’s control with Ali’s help. According to the news coming from the Ottoman court, Ottoman Sultan Mahmud II seems to be simultaneously mobilizing troops and sending people to negotiate with Ali.”

“If his negotiations with Ali fail, then the two sides will inevitably engage in a decisive battle in Anatolia. But unfortunately, the most formidable troops in the Ottoman Empire are the Egyptian Pasha Ali’s troops. Plus, the Ottoman navy has been completely destroyed by your Admiral Codrington. So, I’m not optimistic about the Ottoman’s prospects for a decisive battle.”

“Mahmud II is obviously aware of this. So, after receiving news of Ali’s rebellion, he sent a plea for help to Paris. I believe there’s a similar plea for help on Viscount Palmerston’s desk. Of course, Metternich and Nicholas I must have received one too.”

“Is that right?” Arthur pondered for a moment, “With all due respect, if it’s true as you say, why is there no wind of it in the British press?”

Talleyrand raised a corner of his mouth, “So, that’s the strange part. The lack of news to some extent reveals Viscount Palmerston’s stance. He doesn’t intend to intervene. But that’s normal. Not only him, but we’re not going to intervene either.”

“However, I can assure you that the Tsar might intervene. I can understand why Viscount Palmerston doesn’t want to delve deeper into the Polish issue. But if he intends to stand aside on the Ottoman-Ali issue too, then I can’t understand.”

Hearing this, Arthur suddenly thought of General Napier who had sailed from Liverpool.

But in front of Talleyrand, he didn’t reveal the whole truth.

Arthur replied, “Perhaps it’s because of the cholera and the parliamentary reform issues, and there’s just been another assassination in Liverpool. You know, Britain is in a mess itself right now, and we just don’t have the time to worry about other matters.”

“Don’t say that,” Talleyrand wagged his finger, “France has only recently experienced the July Revolution, and we’re also guarding against cholera. Internal and external affairs can’t be treated the same way. Moreover, haven’t you considered that some problems are completely man-made?”

“Of course, I’ve thought about it.”

Arthur leaned back in his chair, “But firstly, I have no evidence. Secondly, if it’s man-made, it’s beyond my jurisdiction. You know, Viscount Palmerston has a good relationship with the Russians, and he’s also an Irish lover. The Times even called him ‘Cupid from Ireland’, so his close relationship with Mrs. Livent is only natural. If I go and tell Lord Melbourne that the Foreign Secretary’s sweetheart wants to kill me, that’s a bit too dramatic.”

Talleyrand tapped his finger on the tabletop, “If you want evidence, I happen to have some. But the source of the evidence is not easy to explain, so how to use it depends on your eloquence. Of course, if you’re worried about offending a minister who doesn’t concern you, you can just pretend I didn’t say anything.”

Arthur laughed, “Mr. Talleyrand, you’ve said this much, how could I leave?”

Talleyrand smiled cunningly, raising his glass to clink with Arthur’s, “Arthur, I knew you were different from other young men. Of course, if you succeed, consider this diplomatic lesson free of charge.”

“You were going to charge me?”

“Of course,” Talleyrand straightened his collar, speaking proudly, “Talleyrand’s personal guidance, even if I charge you 10,000 pounds, is that too expensive? Metternich once spent millions of francs to buy some information from me. Young man, this is a very cheap price for you.”

(End of Chapter)